NCAA Championship Game Preview: Przemek Karnowski vs Kennedy Meeks

This feels like one of the more equal title games in quite some time. We have the two most complete teams in the country, who were top-10 pretty much all year going against each other. It’s rare that happens and it’s awesome when it does. So, we’ll be looking at a bunch of different angles of this game, including individual matchups, advanced numbers and things to watch. 

In an era where bigs want to stretch the floor and be more of the athletic up and down the court type players, the national title game is giving us a throwback in two guys who love playing with their back to the basket and look like the traditional centers. It’s also a question that is getting asked quite a bit. What happens in the Karnowski vs Meeks matchup? What are things to watch for between these two guys? Does one of their teams need them to be more effective than the other?

Karnowski is the better offensive player. He has a little more in his arsenal when it comes to post moves and is a much better passer than Meeks. Now, that said, Meeks is effective at rebounding and putbacks. Now, while they are used to having a size advantage when they play someone else, that will obviously be canceled out in this game. That won’t stop these teams from playing their traditional style. Gonzaga will absolutely play through the post, so we’ll start with Karnowski.

He’s had 450 offensive possession this season in which he’s scored 1.04 points per possession, grading out as excellent per Synergy. In no surprise, out of those 450 possessions, 294 of them have come in your traditional post up setting. He ranks in the 91st percentile in the country with his 1.044 points per possession there. I want to focus obviously on his post up play and what he does well out of there.

To start he’s an excellent passer back to the wings when he sees the defense collapsing. He’s had 79 passes out of the post to spot-up shooters leading to scores 52% of the time. He’s very patient when he catches the ball, which is something you can’t say about most college bigs. You saw Oregon’s Jordan Bell – a great player – panic last night and his passing weakness was exposed against UNC’s defense. Karnowski won’t have that problem. This is the one play yesterday that really showed his feel for the post. It starts by NWG getting the ball to Karnowski on the mismatch after the switch on the screen. As Silva dives, NWG is able to relocate while Karnowski takes his bounce to the lane and hits Williams-Goss for an easy three. Expect to see Gonzaga bring Meeks up in these high ball screens quite a bit, so there could be a play similar to this.

Based on this passing, it’s no surprise Karnowski is actually much better when the defense commits. Gonzaga is scoring 1.447 points per possession when the defense commits compared to the 1.044 when it doesn’t. That’s mostly due to the open threes. One thing to watch is if UNC can force Karnowski to the left block. He’s more effective on the left block, but almost 2/3 of his touches come from the right block. He wants to turn his right shoulder, take a dribble and shoot that little baby hook he has. The other thing is when he does catch it on the left block he’s more likely to shoot compared to passing out. I fully expect Meeks to sit on his right shoulder and force Karnowski to turn over his left.

Kennedy Meeks is coming off his best game of the season and has been a monster of the glass the last two games. He won’t have the luxury of a lack of depth in the frontcourt against Gonzaga though. Meeks has been graded out as excellent on offense this season as he ranks in the 85th percentile in the country with 1.019 points per possession. What’s damn impressive about Meeks is out of his 484 possessions, 125 of them are on putbacks. He’s the reason the Tar Heels are No. 1 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. He’s scoring on 64% of these putbacks and he’s incredibly disciplined at keeping the ball high after grabbing the rebound.  Against Oregon he had eight points, drew a foul and oh, just won the game with the game-sealing offensive rebound.

Meeks is opposite than Karnowski when it comes to play in the post. He’s not looking to pass out of there. He has just 37 passes out of a post up set this season. He’s looking to make a move and finish in the paint. It’s not necessarily a bad thing, but with the lack of passing, it can let Gonzaga’s guards come and dig at the ball, forcing him to make a decision.

Meeks is more balanced in terms of what block he gets the ball on, but he does prefer the left block. He does want to take a dribble, regardless of what shoulder he turns over as well. Like Karnwoski though he takes that dribble to get positioning and go up for his hook shot. He is strong in the 1v1 post matchups, but when the defense commits he becomes average, just something to watch how Gonzaga defends him the post.

When there’s a double in the post, UNC is scoring just .702 points per possession or scoring just 30% of the time. For comparison sake UNC is at .843 points per possession overall in the post or scoring  on 43.4% of the time. I do think UNC needs Meeks to have the better game in order for the team to be successful, just because of what we saw out of Zach Collins, while Johnathan Williams and Isaiah Hicks are similar type of players. Ultimately I do think Meeks has the better game on the glass, but look to see how Few draws up his defense to dig on Meeks in the post. I know it’s easy to just let Karnowski or Collins play him 1v1, but if he gets off to a quick start, I’d want to get him out of rhythm.